A new report from Disruptive Analysis has found that by 2009, there will be a market for 46.8 million Wireless VoIP (VoWLAN) phones, of which 64% (29.8 million) will be “dual-mode” cellular/VoWLAN devices. These will be able to connect to both ordinary cellular networks, and WiFi access points. The rest will be “single-mode” VoWLAN handsets, similar to today’s home or office cordless phones, but potentially with much greater functionality.

Many observers and industry participants had expected a significant role for “UMA” (Unlicenced Mobile Access) technology among dual-mode phones and new operator business models. UMA enables GSM-based cellular carriers to extend their services, via broadband and WiFi (or Bluetooth), into users’ homes, improving coverage and offering low-cost in-home telephony. The intention is for “seamless roaming” between cellular and WiFi domains. UMA’s advocates hope to continue the trend of substituting mobile calls for traditional residential fixed-line phone services.

But the study finds that just 5.5m households worldwide will use WLAN-based UMA services by the end of 2009, with 6.7 million UMA VoWLAN phones being sold during that year. Although UMA-based services are first-to-market in the FMC arena, limitations to the business model will stall roll-out and uptake, letting competing approaches, based on standards like SIP (Session Initiation Protocol), catch up. Simpler, “unconverged” VoWLAN services are likely to take the lead, ignoring the complexities of roaming in the short term.

UMA does not currently support 3G services, nor integrate with corporate telephony systems. Given that carriers are looking to upgrade their best customers to 3G services, providing them with new and expensive 2.5G/WLAN phones seems a retrograde step. Although Bluetooth-based UMA handsets will be inexpensive, WLAN-equipped ones are likely to be much more costly.

Other factors will also diminish the attraction of the UMA proposition.

Dean Bubley, author of the report and founder of Disruptive Analysis, explains “UMA generally ignores the existence of the user’s PC. But if a customer has a multimedia-capable, WiFi-connected device, using their paid-for broadband connection, he or she will probably want to link the two. For voice calls and basic coverage improvement, this isn’t a major issue. But if the phone is also an MP3 player and a multi-megapixel cameraphone, customers will be annoyed if it cannot access the PC’s hard disk – or benefit from the PC’s connection to the real Internet, to access email, music, VoIP or other services. There may also be complex security and customer support issues, connecting a UMA-phone via a customer’s existing WiFi access point, that mobile operators will struggle to deal with.”

Source ; cellular news